Box Office Predictions: The Super Mario Bros. Movie heading to a video game best opening

The Super Mario Bros. Movie is set to have the highest opening ever for a film based on a video game.

Easter weekend is upon us, and there is no shortage of films to see at your local multiplex. In a true bit of counter-programming, we have two new releases entering the market that are aimed at completely different demographics. In one corner, you have The Super Mario Bros. Movie hoping to fill the void of animated family films that have been so few and far between while Ben Affleck gets back in the director’s chair for the first time since 2016’s underperforming Live By Night with the story of how Nike went from the verge of bankruptcy to one of the biggest names in fashion by securing the biggest (and best) basketball player ever to play the game, Michael Jordan, for perhaps the most famous shoe line ever created. To go along with those big studio offerings, you also have the “is it a Bob Ross biopic or just a Bob Ross like character?” movie Paint starring Owen Wilson, and being as it is Easter weekend, a religious holiday, you can’t sleep on the faith-based titles that have been killing it at the box office recently such as His Only Son and Jesus Revolution that should see solid returns this weekend.

Super Mario Bros. Movie

Full disclosure, I kind of already have a heads up in my predictions as both The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Air were released on Wednesday, and some early numbers have begun pouring in. With those two extra days of release, the studios are spreading out some of those box office dollars, and as such, it looks like The Super Mario Bros. Movie is settling in around $87 million for the 3-day weekend while amassing nearly $128 million for its 5-day take. That is based on what is looking like a $26 million Wednesday opening. Right now, the 3-day champion for a movie based on a video game came just last year when Sonic The Hedgehog 2 was released on April 8 with $72.1 million. Super Mario Bros. will easily defeat that total, but I still think walk-up business gets this one to at least the $90 million mark for the weekend. There hasn’t been an animated family film since Puss in Boots; The Last Wish was released on December 16, 2022, to a fairly lackluster $12.4 million, yet with a lack of competition, the animated sequel was able to turn that $12.4 million into a respectable $184.9 million domestic. Mario is looking to have a far better opening weekend, but with another gap between animated films as Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse doesn’t open until June 2, followed by the Pixar film Elemental on June 16, it looks like families may give this animated adventure some solid legs. (Check out our own Chris Bumbray’s review here)

Ben Affleck, Michael Jordan, Air

Air comes to us by way of Amazon studios, who had originally planned on releasing this film direct to their streaming service but, in the wake of securing MGM and giving their films a big screen push, decided to go theatrical. As of right now, the film appears to be on track for around a $10 million 3-day take, while its 5-day is looking like $16 million. Those aren’t gangbuster numbers for a film reportedly in the $80 million budget range, but you must keep in mind: ignoring something like John Wick, films aimed at the adult audience don’t always kill it at the box office on opening weekend. They tend to find their audience as the weeks go on and the older crowd makes their way to the theaters. With stellar reviews, 95% on Rotten Tomatoes, with our own Chris Bumbray calling it “A great movie” in his 8/10 review, and an excellent 98% audience score, this one will hopefully have the legs it deserves at the box office.

As of right now, it is looking like Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may actually have a decent hold for this type of film as it looks to drop under 50% from its opening weekend and land with around $20 million, while John Wick: Chapter 4 and His Only Son should round out the top five with relatively minor drops as traditionally speaking Easter Weekend is a solid one at the box office, and this year there is plenty to see!

Do you plan on heading to theaters this weekend? If so, let us know what you are most excited about in the comments, and don’t forget to check back in with us on Saturday, as we will have an update on where the numbers are heading


  1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie $90 Million
  2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves$20 Million
  3. Air$10 Million
  4. John Wick: Chapter 4$5 Million
  5. His Only Son$3 Million

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